John and Alex talk through the day’s intelligence — threat, industry, regulation and tradecraft — one episode every day, everything at the minute.
The Weekly Brief for the week ending 11 September 2026: Yemen enters a new and more dangerous phase with Red Sea shipping under renewed threat, the Security Council deadlocks over Iran sanctions, plus the week across the Sahel and Central Africa, a Libya elections step, SIA enforcement on right to work, and the current UK and Northern Ireland threat levels.
This week: a major SIA shake-up for licence holders, mounting jihadist pressure across the Sahel, two narrow FCDO easings in Venezuela and Jordan, and the standing conflict watch from Ukraine to Kenya's coast.
This week's security review for operators: escalating violence in the West Bank and a fragile Gaza ceasefire, a deepening displacement crisis in Sudan's Kordofan region, the mass abduction in Niger State, advisory changes from Haiti to Yemen, a UK training-compliance change from the SIA, and the standing UK terrorism threat level.
This week's operator intelligence in review. A widening Middle East picture behind Iran's strikes across the region since July, from Syria, Lebanon and Iraq to Yemen's maritime chokepoints and record settler violence in the West Bank. All-travel bans holding across Sudan and South Sudan with famine and displacement layered on top. A rare Foreign Office downgrade for Kuwait against a still-volatile Gulf. Today's lead on Libya, where a stalling transition meets blackouts and an assassinated intelligence chief. And at home, the SIA's licence-qualification overhaul and the end of its recognition of BIIAB, with the UK threat level holding at severe.
This week's operator intelligence in review. A widening hostile-area map, from Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the West Bank and Yemen, with two threads running through it: the loss of a reliable way out, and a drone capability now showing up across multiple conflict zones. Plus where the UK threat level sits.
This week's operator intelligence in review: a widening hostile-area picture across the West Bank, Yemen, Ukraine and Lebanon, kidnap warnings naming British business travellers in Mali and Colombia, and where Martyn's Law and the SIA now stand for the UK security industry.
John and Alex work through Thursday's board: a second maritime front as the Houthis blockade Saudi oil through Bab el-Mandeb, Hormuz still shut and ships still being hit, war-risk cover that holds while 6,000 crew stay stranded, a Suez workaround that only half works, the Martyn's Law clock, GNSS spoofing in both theatres, and a badly under-strength Gang Suppression Force in Haiti.
John and Alex run Wednesday's intelligence: the Gulf war becomes a two-chokepoint problem as US strikes on Iran reach a tenth night and the Houthis blockade the Red Sea, war-risk cover reprices the region with around 6,000 seafarers stranded, movement tradecraft under GNSS spoofing, Martyn's Law firming up for spring 2027, and Haiti's understrength Gang Suppression Force plus Mali's reimposed fuel blockade.
John and Alex run Tuesday's intelligence: the Strait of Hormuz still shut two weeks on and the fight widening across the Gulf, war-risk cover now a standing eight-figure cost, Congress weighing Haiti's Gang Suppression Force, Mali's fuel siege grinding on, and executive protection moving into the digital home.
John and Alex run Monday's intelligence: the sealed Strait of Hormuz and its spiralling cost, why the World Cup's real exposure was never the fence, fresh guidance on Martyn's Law, and two crises tightening at once in Mali and Haiti.
John and Alex work through Sunday's intelligence: the Gulf war running into a second week with the blockade holding and Hormuz traffic near zero, war-risk cover still punishing with thousands of crew trapped, EASA's Gulf airspace advisory leaving two movement corridors degraded, Haiti's Gang Suppression Force meeting its 90-day review understrength, Mali's Bamako still on escorted fuel convoys, the UK's Martyn's Law tiers and close-protection refresher, and the SEAR 1 security lockdown around the World Cup final at MetLife.
John and Alex work through Saturday's intelligence: the Gulf war widening onto Iran's Gulf of Oman coast with the Chabahar tower strike and Iran's retaliation across six Arab states, war-risk cover jumping again with thousands of crew trapped, the MetLife World Cup final locking down under a federal security event, Haiti's Gang Suppression Force meeting its 90-day review at a fifth of strength, Mali's Bamako running on escorted fuel convoys, and the UK's Martyn's Law guidance and the new close-protection refresher rule.
John and Alex run Friday's intelligence: the Strait of Hormuz standoff into its second week and the naval blockade being enforced ship by ship, the expiry of OFAC's Iran oil relief and what it means down the service chain, war-risk cover hitting eight figures a transit, Haiti's Gang Suppression Force facing its 90-day review at a fifth of planned strength, the Bamako fuel siege easing without explanation, duty of care through the Gulf hubs, and the World Cup final locking down as a National Special Security Event.
John and Alex run Thursday's intelligence: the US second wave of strikes on Iran and Trump's one-week deadline, the oil market pricing two chokepoints at once, the Iran oil wind-down shutting Friday, the Sahel fuel siege and Haiti's under-strength force, and the World Cup final closing the security season.
John and Alex run Wednesday's intelligence: the United States reinstates its Hormuz blockade as the war reaches Kuwait and Bahrain, the Houthis threaten Bab el-Mandeb as a second chokepoint, war-risk cover holds near five per cent, the OFAC Iran oil wind-down shuts on Friday, the tradecraft trap of going dark in the strait, and the latest from Mali and Haiti.
John and Alex work through the day: the Strait of Hormuz back at war after a fatal tanker strike and a US blockade, war-risk cover hard at 5% of hull value, the Iran oil-trade window shutting Friday, the World Cup security operation at its peak for Sunday's final, Martyn's Law taking shape for UK operators, and Threat Level on Mali's fuel siege and Haiti's understrength anti-gang force.
John and Alex run Monday's intelligence: the Strait of Hormuz stays shut as reopening turns on an Omani navigation-fee proposal Washington rejects, with around 6,000 seafarers trapped and the US oil-sanctions wind-down closing on 17 July; war-risk cover settles at a five percent floor as owners stop sailing; the World Cup counter-drone operation hits peak week before the MetLife final; the SIA refresher gate on close-protection renewals; plus JNIM's fuel war on Bamako, Haiti's understrength suppression force, and GNSS spoofing over the Gulf.
Hormuz transit collapses to a fraction of normal as masters wait on a political word and the war-risk market quietly freezes; OFAC's Iran oil licence closes at 00:01 EDT on 17 July; the World Cup reaches its semifinals under a record counter-drone effort; plus the Mali fuel siege on Bamako and Haiti's thin suppression force, and a GNSS-spoofing tradecraft reminder for the Gulf.
John and Alex run the day's intelligence: Trump declares the US-Iran ceasefire over and the fight turns to who reopens the Strait of Hormuz, war-risk cover hardens to five percent of hull value, the World Cup heads into its final week, Martyn's Law takes shape ahead of 2027 enforcement, GPS spoofing thickens the electronic fog over the Gulf, and JNIM's fuel siege keeps strangling Bamako.
John and Alex run the day's intelligence: the Strait of Hormuz grinds to a halt a week into renewed US-Iran fighting, war-risk cover and OFAC's 17 July sanctions clock become the practical brakes on Gulf movement, Iran buries Khamenei with its new leader still unseen, the World Cup narrows to US soil with the drone problem unsolved, and Haiti's suppression force lands undermanned.
John and Alex run the day's intelligence: the Gulf war restarts with three tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and US strikes on Iran, Washington calling the interim deal off; Khamenei's burial in Mashhad closes a week of mourning; war-risk premiums spike again; NATO's Ankara summit closes on more than fifty billion dollars of orders; World Cup drone seizures pass six hundred; the SIA moves to pilot inspections on Martyn's Law; and GNSS spoofing is back at full intensity across the Gulf.
John and Alex run Wednesday's intelligence: Khamenei's funeral crosses into Iraq with burial in Mashhad tomorrow and the Doha talks paused around it; the Strait of Hormuz stays priced as a war zone while Washington's $40bn insurance backstop sits unused; the Red Sea's quiet frays with an unclaimed hit off Hodeida days before the UN's watch expires; the World Cup counter-drone numbers land; NATO closes in Ankara on tens of billions in contracts; and the Martyn's Law clock runs on as Iraq stays a Level 4 threat.
John and Alex run Tuesday's intelligence: Iran's funeral reaches Qom with burial Thursday and US-Iran talks frozen; the Red Sea's quiet breaking off Hodeida days before the UN's watch expires on 15 July; the World Cup's counter-drone grey space and a new rule handing police C-UAS powers; NATO's Ankara summit opening on the 5% build-out; the NIJ 0101.07 body-armour standard going live; and Ecuador's coastal risk.
John and Alex open the week in Tehran, where the main Khamenei funeral procession moves through a sealed city with the US-Iran track frozen until after Thursday's burial. Then: the Red Sea's quiet breaks off Hodeida, DHS confirms a breach of the network that coordinates US event security mid-World Cup, ADT's UK residential arm sells for £180m, Securitas points its 2030 strategy at intelligence-led security, the SIA's spring-2027 clock firms up, EASA's new satellite-navigation interference bulletin, and Haiti's violence spreads beyond the capital.
John and Alex run Sunday's intelligence: Iran's state mourning for Khamenei closes Tehran airspace and pauses the US-Iran talks; the Strait of Hormuz is moving again but war-risk pricing keeps it expensive and reversible; NATO heads to Ankara for its summit and Defence Industry Forum under a 40,000-strong lockdown; the World Cup runs into its final fortnight; the Red Sea stays quiet ahead of a 15 July UN reporting deadline; JNIM's fuel blockade has Bamako under siege; and GNSS denial becomes an unavoidable Gulf planning factor.
John and Alex run Saturday's intelligence: US-Iran talks in Doha report progress and a new communication channel while Iran hardens its Strait of Hormuz routing warning and the next round waits on Khamenei's funeral; the Red Sea holds quiet ahead of a 15 July UN reporting vote; NATO gives the defence industry its own day in Ankara as the 5% pledge turns to delivery; the Martyn's Law clock runs after the SIA's section 12 consultation closes; World Cup drone detections pass 1,100 with a new 1 July rule widening who can act; and JNIM's fuel siege of Bamako deepens as the UN takes up the Sahel.
John and Alex work the 3 July desk: the war reaching the Gulf host states as Iran strikes US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain and talks stall, why the quiet Red Sea sits on a hair-trigger, NATO's Ankara summit and the 5% defence pledge, the SIA turning Martyn's Law regulator, World Cup drone detections past eleven hundred and the signal-to-noise problem, JNIM's deepening siege of Bamako, and the UK holding at SEVERE.
John and Alex work the 2 July desk: the Hormuz understanding buckling after two ships are hit and CENTCOM strikes back, why war-risk insurance is the real gate on any reopening, NATO's Ankara summit and the 5% defence pledge, Turkey on two counts, the World Cup counter-drone count passing 300 and the signal-to-noise problem, new UK public-order offences commencing, and JNIM's blockades squeezing the Sahel.
John and Alex work through the 1 July desk: record-level executive targeting and why it has moved past the CEO, a live UK protest season, the SIA's night-time enforcement sweep, deepfake voice-clone fraud as a protection problem, the FCDO easing Gulf travel advice, the Risk Outlook 2026 demand signal, and a reframed Sahel kidnap economy.
John and Alex run Tuesday's intelligence: Hormuz reignites with two merchant ships struck and the maritime threat level back to substantial, Europe's structural airport-drone gap, a threat-level scan spanning the Gulf, post-quake Venezuela and a UK still at severe, plus the SIA's new draft Buyer's Charter and June fee rises and the NIJ 0101.07 body-armour overhaul.
John and Alex on the day the Hormuz ceasefire came apart: US–Iran strikes, stalled talks and contested Gulf transits, the war-risk premium spike, the locked-down World Cup airspace, plus Martyn's Law and a tourniquet-doctrine update.
John and Alex run Tuesday's intelligence: the Bürgenstock talks close with a 60-day road map and a Hormuz de-confliction line while the strait stays contested, the Montreal lone-actor shooting, the World Cup's drone-and-counter-drone fight and the ICE public-order variable, OFSI's record sanctions fine, the SIA and Martyn's Law compliance clock, the TCCC kit refresh, and the threat board with the UK at SEVERE and Bolivia in a state of emergency.
John and Alex run Sunday's intelligence: talks resume at the Bürgenstock with Vice-President Vance arriving even as Iran's Hormuz closure order and CENTCOM's transit count openly contradict each other, why disputed Lebanon is the most likely trigger for a reversal, the insurance market still sitting tight, and the protective focus shifting to Belgium versus Iran at SoFi tonight.
John and Alex run Saturday's intelligence: the Strait of Hormuz gives off two opposite signals in a single day — 55 ships transit while Iran declares the strait closed — why war-risk insurance, not the press conference, is the real gate on reopening, and the building public-order picture ahead of Iran's World Cup match against Belgium at SoFi.
John and Alex run Friday's intelligence: the US-Iran signing in Switzerland and why the strait, the insurance market and the airspace all lag the headline, the Houthi threat back in the southern Red Sea, the executive-protection picture around the World Cup, and a hard look at what is actually in the IFAK.
John and Alex run Thursday's intelligence: the US-Iran signing locked for Friday at the Bürgenstock while the blockade and the airspace rules hold firm, the disrupted soft-target plot against a UFC event at the White House, Allied Universal's Canadian investigations buy, the tightened SIA close-protection training rules, the 2026 TCCC head-injury rewrite, and Britain's £155m bet on a GPS backstop.
John and Alex work through the day: the US-Iran deal that's signed on paper while the Strait of Hormuz still runs dark, comprehensive counter-drone coverage at the World Cup with the legal authority built mid-tournament, the Gang Suppression Force standing up in Haiti, the Martyn's Law clock running to Spring 2027, and the FAA's hardened GNSS-interference drill.
John and Alex run Tuesday's intelligence: the World Cup becomes the largest soft-target operation in years, Mali's fuel blockade puts Bamako under siege conditions, Haiti's gang-suppression force arrives but the capital holds, crypto wrench-attacks turn residential, executive-protection spend hits records, Martyn's Law enforcement takes shape, and the 2026 tourniquet rule changes.
John and Alex run Monday's intelligence: the US-Iran memorandum to end the war with Lebanon and Hormuz inside it but the truce already strained, what eases and what doesn't across the eastern Med, the Pakistan-Afghanistan border squeeze, the Sahel kidnapping shift, Ecuador's coastal risk, the NIJ 0101.07 body-armour transition, GNSS denial as a standing planning factor, and a narrowing security-sector buyer landscape.
John and Alex run the 14 June intelligence: Israel strikes Beirut's Dahiyeh after Hezbollah drones cross the border, with Iran threatening a response and a US-Iran deal in the balance; the Sahel kidnap model shifts from Westerners to locals without lowering foreign risk; the Beirut strike widens travel risk across the eastern Mediterranean; security M&A consolidates 24% as private equity buys up guarding; the SIA raises fees and tightens checks; body armour gets a new NIJ 0101.07 grammar; and Ecuador's coast and Colombia border stay high-risk.
The 13 June brief: a peer-reviewed study ties two years of European GPS interference to a Russian satellite, US forces down Iranian drones over the Strait of Hormuz, the Pakistan–Afghanistan border reignites, Martyn's Law's SIA guidance duties come into force on Monday, the World Cup's first real test comes from protest, and autonomous counter-drone moves into volume supply.
John and Alex run the day's intelligence: the World Cup security operation goes live, France's crypto-kidnap wave, the climb in executive targeting and protective spend, GPS denial as a planning factor, and the regulatory changes landing on UK operators.
