The commercial machinery around the strait is seizing before the military picture resolves. War-risk premiums for ships inside the Gulf rose from about 2% of hull value at the end of one week to 3% within 24 hours, and at least one underwriter put the near-term figure at "at least 5%" (Insurance Journal). Cover is written on a seven-day basis and repriced every 24 to 48 hours, so at these levels a single large-tanker transit carries six figures in extra daily cost.
Some war underwriters have advised owners to pause voyages outright, and the IMO's Secretary-General, Arsenio Dominguez, has said sailings should be avoided (Insurance Journal). The effect is visible in the traffic: five tracked crossings on Wednesday against a pre-war 130 a day, and no large vessel running the southern route with its AIS on since 7 July (Al Jazeera).
Insurance is not the formal gatekeeper, but it has become the practical one. When cover reprices hourly and underwriters advise holding, owners and charterers stop moving regardless of what the naval picture technically allows. Oil has stayed comparatively calm — Brent at $76.58 on Thursday, up around four dollars on the week (Al Jazeera) — because stored volumes and alternative routing are absorbing the shock for now. That calm is thin: a sustained closure, or a strike that kills crew, changes the maths fast.
If your work touches Gulf logistics — protective moves, asset transport, maritime security, crew rotations — assume cover is provisional and price it in. Confirm war-risk status the day of movement, not the week before; plan for the possibility of a same-day withdrawal; and keep a non-Gulf routing option ready. The operators who keep clients moving through this will be the ones treating insurance as a live variable, not a box ticked at contract.
