The marine war-risk market has given up on a quick climbdown in the Gulf. The 60-day ceasefire signed in Islamabad on 17 June frayed within days. Drones struck commercial ships near the Strait of Hormuz, the US hit Iranian military targets along the strait, and Iran fired missiles and drones at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain on 29 June. Scheduled technical talks were skipped. Underwriters have repriced accordingly.
Brokers say cover is still being written, but not cheaply. War-risk rates that sat near 0.25% of hull value before the crisis spiked towards 10% at the peak and now run roughly 3 to 8 percent, according to market reporting. That works out at $3m to $8m for a single large-tanker transit. The Lloyd's Market Association's Joint War Committee widened its listed high-risk area to take in the whole Persian Gulf, adding Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Djibouti.
One point cuts against the panic. The LMA has been blunt that cover remains available. Most of the Lloyd's marine war market still has appetite for hull and cargo risk, and P&I liability cover is non-cancellable. What has collapsed is traffic, which the LMA attributes to crew-and-vessel safety judgements rather than any insurance gap.
**For the industry:** that distinction is the one to brief on. The binding constraint on moving people, assets and cargo through the region is the threat assessment, not insurability, and the premium curve now reads as a real-time gauge of it. Firms advising energy, shipping and travel clients should treat elevated, sticky war-risk pricing as a planning baseline through the summer, flag the Kuwait and Bahrain spillover, and price route-risk and personnel cover on the assumption that the strait stays contested.
