Thursday's picture, pulled together for operators.
The Gulf. US Central Command ran a second wave of strikes on Iran on Wednesday, hitting Greater Tunb island in the Strait of Hormuz and a barracks near Iranshahr where seven military personnel were killed. The naval blockade of Iranian ports, back in force since 14 July, holds. Trump dropped his proposed 20 per cent shipping fee in favour of Gulf-state trade deals, told Iran to make a deal "or you're not going to have anything left", and said strikes could expand to bridges and power plants next week. Brent crude is above 85 dollars, around 15 per cent over pre-war levels.
The oil picture. Hull war-risk cover for a Hormuz transit is running near 5 per cent of ship value, up from about 2 per cent last month. Bab el-Mandeb now carries around 7.4 million barrels a day, roughly 7 per cent of world oil, swollen by Saudi Arabia rerouting most of its exports through the Red Sea, which is exactly why the Houthi threat to close that strait too matters.
Compliance. OFAC's General License X1 winds down the short-lived Iranian oil authorisation. The window shuts at one minute past midnight Eastern on Friday 17 July, no new transactions after, and no extension expected.
Sahel and Caribbean. JNIM's fuel siege on Bamako grinds on, with more than 300 tankers destroyed and the army convoying fuel in under guard, and the strain now reaches Mali's neighbours. And Haiti goes back to the Security Council with its Gang Suppression Force still near 1,000 of an authorised 5,550, and BINUH recording 1,642 people killed in the first quarter.
Home straight. The World Cup closes on Sunday with Spain against Argentina at MetLife, and the biggest security lines of the tournament with it.
Check the desks for the detail and the sources.
