The day's intelligence in brief. Full posts, with sources, are on the desks.
Hormuz, week two. US and Iranian forces traded strikes into the weekend, with US strikes hitting more than 300 targets across three rounds and Iran answering across Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan and Oman. The blockade reinstated on 14 July holds, commercial transits have all but stopped, and President Trump has called the ceasefire over while his team keeps talking.
Insurance, still punishing. War-risk cover for a Hormuz transit is running at 3 to 10 per cent of hull value, around 3 to 10 million dollars on a 100 million dollar ship, against about 0.25 per cent before the war. Some underwriters are advising owners to pause, and the IMO puts about 6,000 seafarers trapped in the region.
World Cup, final locks down. Sunday's final at MetLife, Spain against Argentina, carries a SEAR 1 rating and a heads-of-state guest list. A match-day no-drone zone runs to three nautical miles and 3,000 feet, and more than 600 drones have already been seized near US host-city sites.
Gulf movement, plan it degraded. EASA has told airlines to avoid the airspace of the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar until 29 July. With the sea route shut too, plan movement around two degraded corridors and hold a self-reliant fallback.
Haiti, force under review. The Security Council takes its 90-day briefing this month with the Gang Suppression Force at roughly 1,000 of a planned 5,550 and full strength not expected before October. At least 26 gangs still hold about 90 per cent of the capital, and displacement is above 1.4 million.
Mali, siege holds. JNIM's fuel blockade keeps Bamako on escorted convoys, with more than 300 tankers destroyed since September and more than 1,000 moved into the capital under escort since late October. Treat road movement as permissive but reversible, because fuel is the single point of failure.
UK, Martyn's Law in focus. The Terrorism (Protection of Premises) Act sets a standard tier at 200 to 799 and an enhanced tier at 800 or more, with final SIA guidance due in the autumn and the law expected in force in spring 2027. Since April, close-protection renewals need a refresher qualification and a current first-aid ticket.
