Today's picture for operators is set by two hostile-area developments.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo is the priority watch. The World Health Organization said on 17 August that the Bundibugyo strain Ebola outbreak is now the deadliest the country has faced, with 2,325 deaths from 4,945 confirmed cases and a 46 per cent fatality rate. The epicentre is around Bukavu in the east, inside the provinces the FCDO already rules off limits, where M23 and Rwandan forces hold the cities and the airports are shut. The outbreak and the conflict share the same ground, so medevac, extraction and border movement are constrained on both fronts at once. Treat the health picture as part of the threat picture and assume short-notice route and crossing closures.
In Myanmar, the UN's investigative mechanism reported on 11 August that the military is deliberately attacking civilians from the air, hitting homes, schools, hospitals and displacement camps, and that its growing use of motorised power gliders and drones is making attacks harder to see coming. The takeaway for teams is the shrinking warning window: plan for overhead threat at fixed sites, not just on the move, weight hardened cover in site selection, and keep a rehearsed take-cover drill. As background, the UK domestic terrorism threat level remains at severe, meaning an attack is highly likely.
