The Sahel is professionalising. The UN's 14 July assessment describes armed groups using drones, encrypted communications and cryptocurrency to coordinate across borders, with JNIM and the Front de Liberation de l'Azawad working to consolidate territorial and economic control. Coordinated attacks hit Bamako, Kati, Kidal, Gao and Mopti. The central Sahel and northern Nigeria remain the core, with spillover reaching coastal states; roughly 6.8 million people have been displaced since February. Treat drone over-watch and armed-group route control as live planning assumptions for any task in or near the region.
The UK protective-security bar is firming up. Counter Terrorism Policing backs a verified national register of specialists and a new Level 3 Competent Person qualification, developed with the National Counter Terrorism Security Office and funded by the Home Office, both tracing to the Manchester Arena Inquiry. For advisers to premises, these are becoming the reference points buyers use. Note this sits separately from SIA licensing.
Threat level: the UK national terrorism threat level remains SEVERE, meaning an attack is highly likely. The threat to Northern Ireland from Northern Ireland-related terrorism is SUBSTANTIAL.
