The UN's political affairs chief, Rosemary DiCarlo, told the Security Council on Wednesday 23 September that the war in Ukraine has reached a more dangerous point. "We are entering a dangerous new phase in the war in Ukraine," she said. "Every day, the attacks are intensifying, civilian casualties are mounting, and the risk of regional spillover is growing."
The civilian toll is rising fast. She told the Council that more civilians were killed or injured in Ukraine in the first eight months of 2026 than in all of 2025. She also reported that Moscow and other parts of Russia had just come under the largest wave of drone attacks so far.
On spillover, DiCarlo cited recent drone incidents in Ukraine's border areas with Moldova and Poland, and in Lithuania and Romania. She said reported military activity around nuclear sites in both Ukraine and Russia remains a grave concern.
Romania's President, Nicușor Dan, set out what that looks like from a neighbouring state. He said Russian drones are breaching Romanian airspace with increasing frequency and have now extended into the maritime domain. He pointed to intensified strikes on Ukrainian ports and on commercial shipping on the Danube and in the Black Sea. Poland's Radosław Sikorski warned that Russia's President might try to provoke a NATO country.
There was no sign of a let-up from Moscow. Russia's Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, told the Council: "we are not going to have a pause in our special military operation."
DiCarlo also flagged the season ahead. "As another wartime winter approaches, the intensifying attacks affecting Ukraine's already strained energy infrastructure are particularly concerning," she said.
What this means for teams
For anyone deployed in or near Ukraine, the UN picture points to three planning areas. First, power: plan on more strikes on the energy grid through the winter, and check generator, fuel, heating and communications fallbacks before the cold sets in. Second, the borders: drone incidents are now being reported along the Moldovan and Polish border areas and in Romania and Lithuania, so teams working in those areas should treat air-raid and drone alerts as part of the normal operating picture. Third, the waterways: Romania's President says Russian drones have reached its maritime domain and that strikes on Ukrainian ports and on Danube and Black Sea shipping have intensified. Journeys and cargo moves through port areas and along the Danube carry more risk than they did.
We covered the FCDO's Romania drone guidance on 20 September. The Security Council record of this meeting is linked below.
