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11 September 2026
Intelligence Desk

Threat & Risk

Threat reporting and risk analysis for protective operations.

Niger: FCDO Holds All-Travel Warning After Gunfire Near the Presidential Palace and Niamey Airport
Threat & Risk

Niger: FCDO Holds All-Travel Warning After Gunfire Near the Presidential Palace and Niamey Airport

The Foreign Office continues to advise against all travel to Niger and updated its advice after reports of gunfire early on 29 August near the Presidential Palace and Diori Hamani International airport in Niamey. It is at least the third reported gunfire incident near the capital's airport this year. With a very high kidnap threat and frequent terrorist attacks, the airport-to-city corridor and short-notice disruption now sit at the centre of any movement plan.

31 Aug3 min
Mali: FCDO Holds All-Travel Warning as JNIM Fuel Blockades Squeeze Bamako
Threat & Risk

Mali: FCDO Holds All-Travel Warning as JNIM Fuel Blockades Squeeze Bamako

The Foreign Office continues to advise against all travel to Mali, where the al-Qaeda-linked group JNIM has blockaded key routes across southern and western Mali, including Bamako, targeting fuel trucks and running checkpoints. The FCDO reports a national fuel shortage and a very high threat of kidnapping. For any presence in-country, movement, fuel and kidnap risk now sit at the centre of planning.

30 Aug3 min
Ukraine: UN Says Civilian Toll Is the Worst Since 2022 as Strikes on Kyiv Continue
Threat & Risk

Ukraine: UN Says Civilian Toll Is the Worst Since 2022 as Strikes on Kyiv Continue

The UN Security Council was briefed on 24 August that 1,396 Ukrainian civilians were killed and 7,978 injured in the first half of 2026, with July the deadliest month for civilians since April 2022. Russian strikes on Kyiv and other cities are continuing, and 10.8 million people now need humanitarian assistance. For any movement in or near Ukraine, the civilian-harm baseline has risen sharply.

29 Aug3 min
Sudan: Kordofan Displacement Deepens as Drone Strikes and Floods Compound the Crisis
Threat & Risk

Sudan: Kordofan Displacement Deepens as Drone Strikes and Floods Compound the Crisis

The IOM reported on 19 August that around 200,000 people have been newly displaced across Sudan's Kordofan region since late 2025, as Rapid Support Forces drone strikes on El Obeid and seasonal flooding compound an already catastrophic picture. Sudan remains under an FCDO advise-against-all-travel warning, and the ground reality behind it is hardening.

28 Aug3 min
West Bank: UN Council Hears of a Week of Settler Attacks and Demolitions as Gaza's Ceasefire Stays Fragile
Threat & Risk

West Bank: UN Council Hears of a Week of Settler Attacks and Demolitions as Gaza's Ceasefire Stays Fragile

The UN Security Council was briefed on 26 August on a week in which Israeli operations injured more than 50 Palestinians, 25 structures were demolished and 38 settler attacks were reported across the West Bank, while Gaza's ceasefire held only fragilely. For teams in or transiting the West Bank, settler violence has become a live routing risk that can close a road without warning.

28 Aug3 min
Nigeria: Mass Mosque Abduction in Niger State Runs Ahead of the Travel Warning
Threat & Risk

Nigeria: Mass Mosque Abduction in Niger State Runs Ahead of the Travel Warning

Gunmen seized worshippers from a mosque in the Borgu area of Niger State during Friday prayers on 21 August. The numbers are officially unconfirmed and range widely, and the President has ordered a coordinated rescue. For teams moving in north-central Nigeria, the operational point is that the threat has outpaced the advisory.

27 Aug3 min
South Sudan: FCDO Adds Cross-Border Ebola Screening to a Do-Not-Travel Country
Threat & Risk

South Sudan: FCDO Adds Cross-Border Ebola Screening to a Do-Not-Travel Country

The Foreign Office updated its South Sudan advice on 25 August with new health-screening information as a Bundibugyo-species Ebola outbreak in neighbouring DR Congo and Uganda reaches areas near the border. For teams in the tri-border, it is a movement-planning change, not just a health note.

26 Aug3 min
Myanmar: UN investigators say air attacks are getting harder to see coming
Threat & Risk

Myanmar: UN investigators say air attacks are getting harder to see coming

The UN's investigative body for Myanmar says the military is hitting homes, schools and hospitals from the air, increasingly with motorised power gliders and drones that give people less time to take cover. For any team on the ground, that shortens the warning window a protective plan relies on.

24 Aug3 min
Syria: the FCDO holds an advise-against-all-travel line as the transition stays fragile
Threat & Risk

Syria: the FCDO holds an advise-against-all-travel line as the transition stays fragile

The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office advises against all travel to the whole of Syria, a position reviewed on 22 July and still in force. At the UN Security Council, the Deputy Special Envoy called the past month a mix of opportunity and fragility, with the impasse in Sweida unresolved and regional tensions running high after Iranian strikes across the region since 8 July.

16 Aug3 min
Nigeria: the FCDO flags heightened security around today's Osun governorship vote
Threat & Risk

Nigeria: the FCDO flags heightened security around today's Osun governorship vote

The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office has updated its Nigeria advice for the Osun State governorship elections on Saturday 15 August, with a heavier security presence expected in and around Osogbo and possible travel restrictions. The standing advise-against map across the north east, north west and the Niger Delta is unchanged.

15 Aug3 min
FCDO tightens UAE advice as Iran strikes ripple across the Gulf
Threat & Risk

FCDO tightens UAE advice as Iran strikes ripple across the Gulf

The Foreign Office updated its United Arab Emirates guidance on 24 July over regional strikes and retaliation by Iran since 8 July. It stops short of advising against travel, but the operator read is contingency planning: airspace and flights are the exposure.

30 Jul2 min
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Hormuz: US hits Greater Tunb in a second wave as Trump sets a one-week clock
Threat & Risk

Hormuz: US hits Greater Tunb in a second wave as Trump sets a one-week clock

The US struck Iran's Greater Tunb island in a second wave on Wednesday and hit a barracks near Iranshahr, while the naval blockade of Iranian ports stays in force. Trump dropped his 20 per cent shipping fee, told Iran to make a deal "or you're not going to have anything left", and said strikes could expand to bridges and power plants next week.

16 Jul3 min
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The Houthis open a second front: Bab el-Mandeb back in play
Threat & Risk

The Houthis open a second front: Bab el-Mandeb back in play

As the Gulf burns, Yemen's Houthis have threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if Saudi Arabia keeps striking Yemen. A senior official has floated an operational alliance to shut Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz together. For shipping it raises the prospect of two of the world's key chokepoints closing at once.

15 Jul3 min
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Hormuz: US reinstates its blockade as Iran takes the war to Kuwait and Bahrain
Threat & Risk

Hormuz: US reinstates its blockade as Iran takes the war to Kuwait and Bahrain

Washington's naval blockade of Iranian ports came back into force at first light on Wednesday, on the fourth day of US strikes. Iran answered with a barrage across the Gulf. Kuwait reports one ballistic and five cruise missiles plus 33 drones, a navy vessel hit and four sailors wounded; Bahrain sounded air raid sirens overnight.

15 Jul3 min
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Hormuz: the reopening now turns on an Omani fee proposal
Threat & Risk

Hormuz: the reopening now turns on an Omani fee proposal

Muscat has drafted an IMO-backed plan to manage Strait of Hormuz traffic through navigation fees. Washington and its Gulf partners reject any deal that lets Tehran charge for passage. The strait stays all but shut, and around 6,000 seafarers are still trapped behind it.

13 Jul3 min
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Into the semifinals: the World Cup's security load peaks this week
Threat & Risk

Into the semifinals: the World Cup's security load peaks this week

The tournament reaches its climax with semifinals in Dallas on 14 July and Atlanta on 15 July, then the final in New Jersey on 19 July. Counter-drone enforcement has already logged more than 600 seizures across host cities β€” and the busiest days are still to come.

12 Jul3 min
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World Cup goes into its final week with the biggest security load yet
Threat & Risk

World Cup goes into its final week with the biggest security load yet

The tournament is down to the last rounds, with semifinals in Dallas on 14 July and Atlanta on 15 July before the New Jersey final. The counter-drone problem has not gone away β€” over 600 seized and more than 1,100 detected. For anyone moving a principal near a host city, the friction is access, not the spectacular.

11 Jul3 min
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Hormuz: the fight is now over who gets to reopen it
Threat & Risk

Hormuz: the fight is now over who gets to reopen it

Trump has declared the US-Iran ceasefire over and wants Tehran to publicly guarantee safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has denied seeking fresh talks and rejects outside powers setting the terms. Transit is thinning and the risk sits on a political trigger.

11 Jul3 min
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Doha talks report progress as Iran hardens its Hormuz routing warning
Threat & Risk

Doha talks report progress as Iran hardens its Hormuz routing warning

Indirect US-Iran talks in Qatar closed with β€˜positive progress’ and agreement to open a communication channel on the June ceasefire deal. In the same breath, Tehran told shipping to follow its designated Strait of Hormuz routes or face force. The next round waits on Khamenei's funeral.

4 Jul3 min
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Two ships hit in days as the Hormuz understanding buckles
Threat & Risk

Two ships hit in days as the Hormuz understanding buckles

A drone struck the crude tanker Kiku in the Strait of Hormuz on 27 June, days after the container ship Ever Lovely was hit in the same waters. Two nights of US strikes followed. The 17 June US-Iran understanding is at breaking point and the Gulf is contested again.

2 Jul3 min
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The Sahel kidnap economy has turned inward
Threat & Risk

The Sahel kidnap economy has turned inward

A 24-year dataset shows kidnap-for-ransom in the Sahel has shifted from Western hostages to a routinised local kidnap economy, with abductions up around twenty-fold since 2017. Western travellers are not the main target, but they use the same roads.

1 Jul4 min
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Montreal: a lone actor, a uniform, and a neighbourhood that reads
Threat & Risk

Montreal: a lone actor, a uniform, and a neighbourhood that reads

A gunman killed a police officer and a civilian in CΓ΄te-des-Neiges on Monday before being killed himself. On early reporting the target was the police; the setting β€” a heavily Jewish neighbourhood, with a Jewish resident among the dead β€” is the part operators read.

23 Jun2 min
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War-risk cover, not the press conference, is the real gate on Hormuz
Threat & Risk

War-risk cover, not the press conference, is the real gate on Hormuz

Hull war premiums for a Gulf transit have re-rated to around 4% of vessel value β€” open-source analysis puts that at thousands of times pre-crisis levels β€” and underwriters, not governments, set the pace of any reopening. With Iran offering free state-backed cover and the IRGC warning ships off in the same week, the insurance signal is where to read the real risk.

20 Jun3 min
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Hormuz is open on paper. The insurance market and the backlog say weeks, not days
Threat & Risk

Hormuz is open on paper. The insurance market and the backlog say weeks, not days

The strait has been declared reopened, but the commercial reality is a months-long unwind. War-risk premiums have jumped to several per cent of vessel value, a large backlog of ships is still waiting, and analysts put full normalisation at up to a year. For teams supporting maritime, energy or expat-movement clients in the Gulf, the risk did not end with the announcement.

19 Jun3 min
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