The financial shock of the Hormuz crisis is landing in the insurance market, not at the pump.
Hull war-risk premiums for a single transit of the Strait of Hormuz have hardened to around 5% of a vessel's value — the level now treated as the market norm. On a $100m tanker that is an illustrative $5m for one passage, with cover pricing as high as 6% at the top of the market. Rates had eased to roughly 2% after the June memorandum of understanding; they climbed again once three vessels were attacked in early July. Lloyd's List reported earlier in the crisis that war-risk cover for the riskiest Gulf trips had topped double-digit millions of dollars.
The IMO Secretary-General condemned the attacks on shipping this week and called on governments with influence over the insurance and reinsurance markets to press for premiums that better reflect actual conditions — a public sign that the cost of cover, not the physical threat alone, is now the choke point on trade.
The read-across for the protective and maritime-security industry is direct. When underwriters withdraw or reprice, transits stop regardless of whether a shot is fired. Expect knock-on demand for armed maritime teams, hardened transit planning and duty-of-care advice, and expect clients with Gulf exposure to ask harder questions about whether a movement is insurable before they ask whether it is safe. Premiums this volatile also mean a quote given on Monday may not hold by Friday.
