The week that was meant to decide whether the Gulf reopened has decided it the other way. Three commercial tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday — the Al Rekayyat caught fire off Oman, with two more vessels hit by projectile and drone; all crews were safe (Washington Times). US Central Command struck Iranian targets in response, the US Treasury revoked June's Iran oil-export authorisation with a 17 July wind-down, and at the NATO summit President Trump declared the interim memorandum with Tehran over while Secretary-General Rutte called the strikes "absolutely necessary" (Washington Times; Al Jazeera). Treat the Gulf as an active conflict environment again. Full read on the Threat & Risk desk.
Iran buries Ali Khamenei at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad today, closing a week of mourning that drew an estimated twenty to thirty million people, including more than 2.3 million through Najaf on the Iraqi leg on Wednesday (Wikipedia). Expect saturation security and road closures around Mashhad and the Iraqi corridor through the dispersal; Iraq stays at Level 4, "Do Not Travel" (US Department of State). Detail on the Threat Level desk.
The insurance market repriced Hormuz risk overnight. War-risk cover for Gulf transits rose from about 2% to 3% of hull value in a day, with underwriters flagging 5% or more and some advising owners to pause voyages; the IMO recommended avoiding Hormuz until crew safety can be assured, and oil rose about 5% (Insurance Journal). The commercial war-risk market, not Washington's unused reinsurance backstop, is the real gate on the strait. On the Industry desk.
NATO's Ankara summit closed on Wednesday having turned the 5%-of-GDP pledge into more than $50bn of new procurement and €70bn in Ukraine support for 2026 — though only five of thirty-two members yet meet the 3.5% core-defence target (Al Jazeera). The broader-resilience investment is where private guarding and monitoring get pulled in.
Across the Atlantic, US agencies have now seized more than 600 drones near World Cup venues since 11 June, out of over 1,100 detected, nearly all hobbyist; a 1 July interim rule widened the counter-UAS mission to state and local agencies, but private teams remain detect-and-report only (GV Wire; DroneDJ). And on regulation, the SIA has moved to pilot inspections and portal testing on Martyn's Law, with final Section 12 guidance still to come and the law in force from spring 2027 across its standard (200-799) and enhanced (800-plus) tiers (NCASS; GOV.UK). One more for the kit bag: GNSS spoofing across the Gulf displaces ships onto land and inland sites — a live planning factor again with the war back on (Inside GNSS). Detail and sources are on each desk.
