The week's centre of gravity is still Tehran. Iran's state funeral for Ali Khamenei reaches Qom today, with processions in Najaf and Karbala on Wednesday and burial at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad on Thursday; Monday's Tehran procession drew a reported twelve to fifteen million (CNN). Indirect US-Iran talks stay frozen until after the burial (CNN), which puts Thursday into Friday as the week's decision point — and the Strait of Hormuz, still sharply constrained, is expected on the NATO agenda in Ankara. Plan Gulf movement around the back half of the week; full read on the Threat & Risk desk.
The Red Sea's quiet broke at the weekend. A bulk carrier was fired on around 30 nautical miles southwest of Hodeida on Sunday, the attackers withdrawing to an AIS-dark mother ship, with no claim; the same weekend brought the deadliest Houthi attack on government forces in years, sixteen dead (CBS News). It lands days before the UN Security Council's reporting mandate on Houthi attacks expires on 15 July — a decision now taken against a live incident rather than a lull (Security Council Report). Treat the corridor as active.
In North America, the World Cup runs to 19 July and the counter-drone weak point is the grey space outside the stadiums — fan zones, hotels, transport — where DHS has admitted it is still catching up (DroneLife). That gap now sits alongside a new legal framework: a DHS and DOJ interim rule, effective 1 July, lets state and local police run counter-drone operations under the SAFER SKIES Act (Federal Register). Private security still has no such authority — the job is to detect, report and integrate, not to defeat.
On industry and regulation, NATO's Ankara summit opens today focused on turning last year's 5% pledge into contracts, with a defence-industry forum running alongside and 'tens of billions' in orders flagged (NATO); the 1.5% broader-security slice is where the guarding and resilience market gets pulled in. On kit, NIJ Standard 0101.07 is now live with a compliant-products list, a new intermediate rifle level (RF2) and better test methods for women's armour — though the old 0101.06 list runs to 2029, so current armour still counts (NIJ).
The Threat Level desk turns to Ecuador — a Level 2 country with Do-Not-Travel pockets on a coast run under rolling states of emergency (State Department). Full detail and sources are on each desk.
