The day's intelligence in brief. Full posts, with sources, are on the desks.
Hormuz — second week. US strikes overnight hit rail, bridges and an airport around Bandar Abbas; US Marines boarded a commercial tanker to enforce the reinstated naval blockade, which has redirected three vessels since Tuesday. Qatar's air defences have engaged incoming attacks more than once. Commercial transits through the strait are down by roughly 90 per cent.
Sanctions — Iran oil relief expires. OFAC's General Licence X1 wind-down closed at 12:01am Eastern today. New dealings in Iranian oil are sanctionable again, and because the original licence covered insurance, crewing and vessel management, the exposure reaches maritime security firms and PMSCs, not only traders. Check charter and cargo provenance on any Gulf tasking.
Insurance — eight figures per transit. War-risk cover for a single Hormuz transit is running at ten to fourteen million dollars, per Lloyd's List. Cover is still available in the London market; the reason ships are staying put is crew and vessel safety, not price.
Haiti — force under review. The Security Council takes its 90-day briefing this month with the Gang Suppression Force at roughly 1,000 of a planned 5,550 and full strength not expected before October. Armed groups still hold an estimated 90 per cent of the capital; displacement is around 1.47 million.
Mali — siege eases. Open-source reporting indicates JNIM's fuel blockade of Bamako has loosened and convoys are moving again, but the relief is unexplained and US travel guidance is unchanged. Treat it as permissive but reversible; fuel is the single point of failure for any movement plan.
Gulf hubs — plan them amber. EASA has advised airlines to avoid UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar airspace to 29 July; Qatar raised its threat level to high; 1,500-plus flights disrupted. Plan movements through the region as a threat environment, not a layover.
World Cup — final locks down. Sunday's final at MetLife is a National Special Security Event, Secret Service-led, with a no-drone zone out to three nautical miles and more than 600 drones already seized near tournament sites. If you are working it, your plan sits inside the federal one.
