War-risk cover for a Strait of Hormuz transit now runs at 2% to 6% of a vessel's value, against a fraction of a percent before the conflict. At the top of that range, insuring a $100m tanker for a single passage costs around $6m — before the no-claims discounts that trim headline rates. At the height of the fighting some ships were quoted as much as 10%.
The rate, though, is not the story this week. The story is demand. "I think that it would be fair to say that the requests for quotes has dropped off given a reluctance to commit to transits, although we are still receiving inquiries and terms are available," said Simon Lockwood, head of shipowners at Willis Towers Watson. Shipping traffic "virtually ground to a halt" on Thursday, with many vessels crossing with transponders off.
That is the mechanism operators need to understand. A hardening rate slows transits; owners no longer willing to commit to them is what stops the ships. Insurance is now the real gate on Hormuz, ahead of the naval picture. "This roller coaster is unlikely to abate until a true and lasting ceasefire is maintained," said Marcus Baker, global head of marine at Marsh.
For anyone with a maritime task, crew rotation or asset movement routed through the Gulf: assume cover is slow, expensive and — increasingly — simply unavailable at short notice. Confirm war-risk terms are actually in place before committing to a transit window, not after.
