The week opens on Iran. State mourning for former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei runs through the week, with Tehran's airspace partly closed from Friday and fully closed from Monday, per Euronews, and the indirect US-Iran talks paused until after the burial. Expect a hardened regional posture and no diplomatic movement before next week.
In the Strait of Hormuz, traffic is back to between 30 and 70 vessels a day, with hundreds of ships still trapped in the Gulf (The National). The gate on a full reopening is insurance: war-risk cover running to 3 to 8 per cent of a vessel's value, three to eight million dollars per large-tanker transit, and it will not normalise quickly (Khaleej Times).
NATO's summit opens in Ankara on 7-8 July, with a Defence Industry Forum alongside and the 5 per cent spending target as the backdrop (NATO). The host city is locked down: Turkish authorities have set red zones, banned demonstrations from 1 to 15 July, restricted some international flights and deployed around 40,000 police and gendarmerie (Turkish Minute). Anyone moving in Ankara this week is planning around a sealed capital.
The FIFA World Cup runs to 19 July, into its final fortnight. US host venues and fan festivals are under FAA No Drone Zones with counter-drone coverage and temporary flight restrictions (FAA). The recurring lesson holds: the friction is crowd dynamics and grey-space perimeter security, not the spectacular.
On the maritime flank, the Red Sea stays quiet. No new Houthi attacks on commercial shipping have been reported since 2025, and the UN Security Council's monthly reporting requirement runs to 15 July (Security Council Report). Quiet is not resolved; the rhetoric remains tied to wider escalation.
In the Sahel, JNIM's fuel blockade has Bamako under siege conditions, with more than 300 tankers destroyed and embassies drawing down staff (Rio Times). And on tradecraft, GNSS denial is now a standing Gulf planning factor, with Iraq and Iran among the FAA's worst spoofing zones (Aviation Week). On regulation, Martyn's Law guidance is published but enforcement does not bite before 2027 (GOV.UK). Full detail and sources are on each desk.
