The Strait of Hormuz has effectively closed to tracked traffic — five crossings on Wednesday against a pre-war 130 a day, and no large vessel on the southern route with its AIS on since 7 July — as the US and Iran trade strikes into a fourth day and Iran claims hits on US assets across five countries (Al Jazeera). Treat the Gulf as sustained conflict, not a lull.
War-risk cover has jumped from about 2% to 3% of hull value in a day, with underwriters quoting "at least 5%" and the IMO advising against non-essential sailings (Insurance Journal). Insurance, not the missiles alone, is the practical brake on Gulf movement now.
OFAC has revoked the June licence that let Iranian crude trade legally; existing transactions must wind down by 17 July, after which full sanctions and secondary exposure return (The Washington Times). It is a due-diligence deadline for anyone with Gulf-logistics or Iran-nexus exposure.
Iran buried Ali Khamenei in Mashhad on 9 July, but his proclaimed successor, Mojtaba, has not been seen since February and communicates only in writing after being wounded in the strike that killed his father (Al-Monitor). A hidden, contested leadership makes any de-escalation signal less reliable.
The World Cup has narrowed to US venues for the quarter-finals (9-11 July) through the final (19 July, MetLife), concentrating the security load as DHS admits its counter-drone soft-area problem is unsolved (DroneLife; Wikipedia).
Haiti's UN-backed Gang Suppression Force is on the ground but roughly a third-strength — about 1,000 of a mandated 5,550, full capacity not expected until October — while gangs still hold up to 90% of Port-au-Prince (Security Council Report; UN News).
The through-line is duration. The Gulf is not spiking, it is settling into war; Haiti's fix is months out; and the regulatory and insurance clocks are the ones running fastest this week. Detail and sources on each item are on the desks.
