The day in one place. Detail and sources are on each desk.
Hormuz. President Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire over on Friday after three vessels were attacked earlier in the week. Washington now wants Tehran to publicly declare the strait open and safe; Iran says any reopening is its call alone. Fresh US measures this week included a move to revoke Iran's oil waiver. Transit has thinned sharply since 8 July on the UN-backed Omani route.
Money. Hull war-risk cover for a Hormuz transit has hardened to about 5% of a vessel's value — roughly $5m on a $100m tanker, and up to 6% at the top of the market — with some Gulf trips reported topping double-digit millions earlier in the crisis. The IMO's chief condemned the attacks and pressed governments to rein the market in. When cover pulls, transits stop regardless of the shooting.
World Cup. The tournament is into its final week: semifinals in Dallas on 14 July and Atlanta on 15 July, final in New Jersey on 19 July. Over 600 drones seized and more than 1,100 detected across venues. For principal movement near host cities, the hazard is access and crowds, not the spectacular.
Regulation. Martyn's Law core provisions are commencing; the SIA's section 12 guidance consultation has closed with final wording due in autumn and full force expected spring 2027. The window to build venue-client capability is now.
Tradecraft. GPS jamming and spoofing across the Gulf has affected more than a thousand ships, putting vessels on land and through airports on their own screens. Assume degraded position and timing as the baseline and keep manual fallbacks live.
Threat Level. Mali. JNIM's fuel blockade continues to strangle Bamako — 300-plus tankers destroyed, 95% of fuel trucked in, Western nationals already advised to leave. A logistics siege where fuel is the single point of failure.
Stay sharp.
