The day's intelligence in brief. Full posts, with sources, are on the desks.
Hormuz — the war widens. A sixth night of US strikes reached a maritime surveillance tower at Chah Bahar on Iran's Gulf of Oman coast, which CENTCOM says the IRGC used to track shipping. Iran answered by targeting US sites in six Arab countries; Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan reported intercepting missiles and drones. The blockade reinstated on 14 July holds and commercial transits have all but stopped.
Insurance — cover jumps again. After a week of tanker attacks, war-risk cover for a Hormuz transit is running at 3 to 10 per cent of hull value, around 3 to 10 million dollars on a 100 million dollar ship. The IMO puts about 6,000 seafarers trapped in the region.
World Cup — final locks down. Sunday's final at MetLife, Spain against Argentina, carries the tournament's tightest federal security. A match-day no-drone zone runs to three nautical miles and 3,000 feet, and more than 600 drones have already been seized near US host-city sites.
Haiti — force under review. The Security Council takes its 90-day briefing this month with the Gang Suppression Force at roughly 1,000 of a planned 5,550 and full strength not expected before October. Armed groups still hold an estimated 90 per cent of the capital, and displacement is around 1.47 million.
Mali — siege holds. JNIM's fuel blockade of Bamako is keeping the capital on escorted convoys; the army moved 940 supply trucks between Kayes and Bamako under escort in late June. Treat road movement as permissive but reversible, because fuel is the single point of failure.
UK — Martyn's Law nears. The SIA has closed its section 12 guidance consultation, with final guidance due in the autumn and the law expected in force in spring 2027. Since April, close-protection renewals need a refresher qualification and a current first-aid ticket.
Gulf movement — plan it degraded. EASA has told airlines to avoid UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar airspace until 29 July. With the sea route shut too, plan movement around two degraded corridors and hold a self-reliant fallback.
