Brent futures closed above $100 a barrel on 24 July, up $6.58 or 6.96 percent to $100.65. It is the first time crude has passed that mark since late May. US pump prices reached an average $4.09 a gallon, with diesel at $5.34.
The price move followed a week of attacks in and around the Red Sea and the approaches to Bab el-Mandeb. Two Saudi oil tankers were attacked on Thursday. One was confirmed ablaze; the condition of the second was not established at the time of reporting.
The more useful signal for operators is not the price. It is the pattern of who is being allowed through.
Maritime intelligence analysis reported by Al Jazeera indicates enforcement is being applied by affiliation rather than by cargo. Michelle Bockmann of Windward assessed that the blockade is "shaping who moves Saudi crude, not whether it moves". Chinese-owned tonnage has been receiving passage. Western and Saudi-linked operators have faced restriction. One cargo moving on 20 July was described as Saudi in origin but Chinese in crew and destination.
That distinction matters well beyond the tanker trade.
If passage is being decided on ownership, flag and crew nationality, then the risk calculation for any movement through the corridor changes shape. Cargo manifests stop being the primary variable. Corporate affiliation, beneficial ownership and the nationality mix of the people aboard become the thing that determines exposure. A vessel carrying nothing sensitive can still present as a legitimate target if its ownership reads the wrong way, and a vessel carrying Saudi crude may transit without difficulty if its operator does not.
For teams with people moving in the region, or with client interests in shipping, port operations or energy logistics, the practical implication is that risk assessments keyed to route and cargo are now incomplete. The affiliation picture needs to sit alongside them.
Treat this as a working assessment rather than a settled rule. Enforcement patterns in the corridor have shifted repeatedly since February and there is no reason to assume the current calibration holds. What the reporting does establish is that the blockade is being applied selectively, and that the selection criteria are political rather than commercial.
