Security-sector M&A consolidated hard through 2025. Capstone Partners recorded 242 transactions, up 24.1% year-on-year, with private-equity add-ons making up 45.9% of activity (111 deals) and PE platform deals up a third. The five-year sector average sits around an 11.8x EV/EBITDA multiple. Named deals show the scale: Warburg Pincus acquired Raptor Technologies from Thoma Bravo in November 2025 at a $1.8bn enterprise value, and Allied Universal completed seven acquisitions in 2025 worth roughly $695m in aggregate annual revenue, weighted toward uniformed guarding.
What's driving it: AI adoption across physical security, demand for guarding as police staffing tightens, and capital chasing recurring-revenue monitoring and life-safety platforms — the Fire & Life Safety segment alone ran 125 deals, up two-thirds on the year.
Operator implication: the firms that contract close-protection and guarding talent are increasingly owned by PE platforms and a few large strategics, and that sets how procurement, margins and standards get decided. For independents and sole traders, expect more rate pressure from consolidated buyers — and more value in what a rollup can't easily commoditise: specialist CP, risk advisory, and demonstrable operator credibility. For security managers, vendor consolidation means fewer, larger suppliers, so write continuity and exit terms into contracts before an acquisition changes the relationship under you.
