**Lead.** The US and Iran have agreed a memorandum to end the war that began on 28 February — announced 14 June by Pakistan's PM and confirmed by Trump, signing set for Friday 19 June in Switzerland. It includes a Lebanon ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. It is not yet signed and is already strained: Israel struck Beirut on 14 June and Netanyahu says Israel is not bound by the Lebanon terms. Plan for de-escalation that is real but reversible. [CBS; Times of Israel]
**Eastern Mediterranean.** The deal should ease the airspace picture, but GNSS interference persists regardless of a ceasefire — keep degraded-navigation contingencies live for air movement. [CBS; Aerospace Global News]
**Pakistan-Afghanistan.** Five major crossings remain shut since October 2025; the pressure now is economic, with pre-closure trade around $200m a month and visas for Afghans suspended. Treat the border belt as elevated and don't plan around a near-term reopening. [GlobalSecurity/RFE-RL; Al Jazeera]
**Sahel.** Kidnapping has shifted to local victims and from ransom to control, but expat staff on remote sites stay exposed. Road movement is the primary threat — pre-agree proof-of-life and no-ransom positions before deployment. [ISS Africa; ADF]
**Ecuador.** FCDO holds "advise against all but essential travel" for seven coastal provinces and the 20km Colombia border strip; the 3 June Babahoyo mass killing shows cartel violence reaching rural transit routes. [GOV.UK; CBS]
**Kit.** NIJ 0101.07 is live but its Compliant Products List is still empty — "0101.07 certified" can't be verified yet, so spec on HG/RF terms and keep buying off the 0101.06 list. And GNSS denial is now a standing planning factor: the FAA has revised its interference guide, EASA and IATA are building a shared picture. [IntelAlytic; NIJ; Aerospace Global News]
**Industry.** Security M&A ran hot in 2025 — 242 deals, up 24.1%, PE add-ons nearly half. The buyer landscape is narrowing; independents should lean into what a rollup can't commoditise. [Capstone Partners]
