The UK national threat level from terrorism is severe, meaning an attack is highly likely. The threat level for Northern Ireland-related terrorism in Northern Ireland is substantial, meaning an attack is likely. Neither has changed since our last threat level update on 20 September.
The national level has been severe since 30 April. A GOV.UK announcement published the following day says the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC) "raised the UK National Threat Level from SUBSTANTIAL, meaning an attack is likely, to SEVERE, meaning an attack is highly likely". The Northern Ireland level has been substantial since March 2024, when the Northern Ireland Office announced that MI5 had lowered it from severe.
This week's development is a government move against one of the routes to an attack. On Thursday 1 October the Home Office opened a consultation on amendments to the Poisons Act 1972, the framework that controls access to explosives precursors and poisons in Great Britain through licensing and through reporting of suspicious transactions. The Home Office says the aim is a regime that remains "effective, proportionate and responsive to current national security and public safety risks, while maintaining access for legitimate users."
The ricin and abrin proposals respond to the Southport Public Inquiry. The consultation document says the Inquiry's Phase 1 report concluded that the perpetrator "was able to acquire castor beans lawfully and subsequently produce a crude preparation of ricin without triggering existing regulatory controls or interventions". The Home Office notes that possessing or producing ricin and abrin is already an offence under the Biological Weapons Act 1974, but that the Poisons Act framework does not currently regulate ricin in castor beans or abrin in rosary peas.
The proposals include adding ricin in castor beans and abrin in rosary peas to the list of regulated poisons; moving sodium nitrite from a reportable to a regulated poison above 10% w/w; moving potassium nitrate and sodium nitrate from reportable to regulated explosives precursors, also above 10% w/w (or a set nitrogen content); and lowering the threshold for potassium chlorate, potassium perchlorate, sodium chlorate and sodium perchlorate from 40% w/w to 10% w/w. Separately, the Home Office is asking about aligning record keeping for business-to-business sales of regulated poisons with the rules for explosives precursors, and about raising licence fees. The measures would apply in England, Scotland and Wales. The consultation closes at 23:59 on Wednesday 11 November.
What it means for operators
The headline numbers are unchanged, so the operating assumption is unchanged: across the UK an attack is assessed as highly likely, and threat levels do not expire. Plan venues, events and movements on that basis.
For clients who sell, store or use chemicals, garden products or seeds, including retailers and online marketplaces, the practical changes to watch are licensing and the suspicious-transaction duty. If these proposals go ahead, more products would need a licence rather than only being reportable, some at lower concentrations, and front-line staff will need to recognise what to refuse and what to report. Businesses affected can respond to the Home Office before the deadline.
