The day in one place. Detail and sources are on each desk.
Hormuz. Transit has collapsed to about 14 vessels a day — roughly a fifth of normal flow since the June ceasefire, on tanker-tracking counts. The strait is closing by choice, not by mines: masters are waiting on a political signal. Washington wants Iran to declare the waterway open and safe; Tehran has denied even asking for fresh talks, with its foreign minister reported heading to Oman.
Money. Hull war-risk cover for a Hormuz transit runs at 2-6% of a vessel's value — up to $6m on a $100m tanker — but the sharper signal is that requests for quotes have dropped off as owners hold back from committing to transits. When the market stalls, transits stop before the shooting does. Confirm cover is actually in place before committing to a window.
Sanctions. OFAC has revoked General License X and given the market until 12:01 a.m. EDT on 17 July to wind down. Anyone with Iranian-linked cargo, contracts or receivables should close them out now — no extension is expected.
World Cup. Into the semifinals: Dallas on 14 July, Atlanta on 15 July, final in New Jersey on 19 July. Over 600 drones seized and more than 1,100 detected across host cities; the two semifinal cities, Atlanta and Dallas, sit near the top of the seizure table. The hazard for principal movement is access and crowds, not the spectacular.
Threat Level — Mali. JNIM's fuel blockade on Bamako grinds into its tenth month: 300-plus tankers destroyed, 95% of fuel trucked in, Western nationals long advised to leave. The reference case for a logistics siege.
Threat Level — Haiti. The UN-backed suppression force is on the ground but running at about 1,000 of a mandated 5,550, with full capacity not due until October, while gangs still hold most of the capital. The Security Council takes up Haiti this month.
Tradecraft. GNSS spoofing and jamming across the Gulf has put more than a thousand ships on airports and on land on their own screens — and a false position can steer you toward a warned or mined area. Treat the blue dot as advisory and keep a manual plot live.
Stay sharp.
