Open-source M&A reporting shows the security sector consolidating at pace. Capstone Partners recorded a 24.1% year-on-year rise in deal volume in 2025, to 242 transactions, with private equity add-ons making up roughly 46% of activity and large strategics expanding their footprint hard.
What's driving it: AI adoption across physical security, demand for uniformed guarding as police staffing tightens, and capital chasing recurring-revenue monitoring and life-safety platforms. Named deals illustrate the scale, with Warburg Pincus reported to have acquired Raptor Technologies for around $1.8bn in November 2025, and Allied Universal cited as acquiring seven companies in a single year. Reported average multiples have held around 11.8x EV/EBITDA over five years.
Operator implication: the firms that employ and contract close-protection and guarding talent are increasingly owned by PE platforms and a handful of large strategics. That changes how procurement, margins and standards are set. For independents and sole traders, expect more pressure on rates from consolidated buyers and more value in differentiation that a rollup can't easily commoditise, specialist CP, risk advisory, and genuine operator credibility. For security managers, vendor consolidation means fewer, larger suppliers, so build continuity and exit terms into contracts before an acquisition changes the relationship.
