The day in one read. Each line links to the standalone post that sources it.
- **Gulf.** The 17 June ceasefire has broken down. Drones hit the container ship *Ever Lovely* (27 June) and the tanker *Kiku* (28 June) near the Strait of Hormuz; US Central Command struck around ten Iranian military sites along the strait; Iran fired missiles and drones at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain (29 June). Reporting does not confirm strikes on nuclear sites. Talks have stalled — Iran skipped scheduled technical talks. Treat the Gulf as a live maritime and basing-risk environment. - **Threat & Risk.** Hormuz is contested again: the central channel stays a mine risk, transits hug the southern Omani lane under escort, and dark-AIS running is routine. The recovery in traffic seen in late June is now at risk. - **Major events.** The 2026 World Cup airspace is locked — FAA No Drone Zones over every US stadium and fan fest, counter-drone cover on all 78 US matches, and 300-plus drones seized since the 11 June kick-off. The live variable is ground-level public order tied to immigration enforcement, not the airspace. - **Industry.** Marine war-risk premiums have stuck at roughly 3–8% of hull value (from about 0.25% pre-crisis); Lloyd's widened its listed high-risk area to the whole Persian Gulf. Cover is still available — it's traffic that has collapsed, on safety grounds. - **Regulation.** The SIA's consultation on the section 12 Martyn's Law statutory guidance closed 12 June; guidance now awaits the Secretary of State's sign-off, with commencement expected spring 2027. Work out your tier and name a responsible person now. - **Tradecraft.** A new CoTCCC paper (Proposed Change 25-2) puts a two-hour clock on tourniquet reassessment and reframes 'replacement' as 'repositioning'. Time-stamp every application; carry haemostatic gauze. - **Threat level.** UK holds at SEVERE (since 30 April). Iran is do-not-travel (FCDO all-travel; US Level 4), and the Gulf re-escalation makes shipping and airspace risk volatile.
